New Delhi: Global prices of some key
commodities will likely fall by up to 26.4% in 2012 and may dip further
in 2013 on economic slowdown, according to a World Bank forecast,
although spot crude oil and gold may still gain this year.
Coal (Australian) prices will likely decline 16.4% to $101 per
tonne, and may fall further to touch $100 next year. Aluminium prices
are forecast to shed 10.4% to $2,150 per tonne this year but may again
rise to $2,350 in 2013. Copper may slid 7.9% to $8,100 a tonne in 2012
before rising to $8,500 next year. Silver may shed more than 9% to $32
per troy ounce and may continue the downward movement to $30.
Coffee
(arabica) will likely lose 26.4% to $4.40 a kilogram this year and may
ease further to $4.30 in 2013. US wheat is expected to dip 11.4% to $280
per tonne and may fall further to $275 next year.
Coal, which lost 6.8% in May in its fourth straight monthly decline, may continue to be under pressure due to weak demand in main consuming regions—Europe, the US and China—and rising production from major suppliers, World Bank said in a separate report.
Copper prices have fallen due to “weak import demand in Europe and China, rising LME (London Metals Exchange) inventories, and de-stocking in China following a large supply build-up”. A drop in Chinese demand will likely weigh on key metal prices. A better-than-expected crop in Brazil has affected arabica coffee prices.
However, spot crude oil prices may gain 2.5% to $106.6 a barrel this year, although the rate may fall to $103 next year. Gold, the investor’s haven asset, may retain some lustre amid a macro-economic gloom and gain 6.8% to $1,675 per troy ounce this year, although the bull run may bottom out with a fall to $1,600 next year.
“Oil demand growth remains weak, and crude stocks are high, especially in the US. However, product inventories are low and should begin to build with a seasonal upturn in refining runs,” the World Bank said in a separate note. “The Brent/WTI spread remains at $15/barrel, despite oil now flowing through the reversed Seaway pipeline, as production continues to climb in Canada and the US,” it added.
Coffee
(arabica) will likely lose 26.4% to $4.40 a kilogram this year and may
ease further to $4.30 in 2013. US wheat is expected to dip 11.4% to $280
per tonne and may fall further to $275 next year.
Coal, which lost 6.8% in May in its fourth straight monthly decline, may continue to be under pressure due to weak demand in main consuming regions—Europe, the US and China—and rising production from major suppliers, World Bank said in a separate report.
Copper prices have fallen due to “weak import demand in Europe and China, rising LME (London Metals Exchange) inventories, and de-stocking in China following a large supply build-up”. A drop in Chinese demand will likely weigh on key metal prices. A better-than-expected crop in Brazil has affected arabica coffee prices.
However, spot crude oil prices may gain 2.5% to $106.6 a barrel this year, although the rate may fall to $103 next year. Gold, the investor’s haven asset, may retain some lustre amid a macro-economic gloom and gain 6.8% to $1,675 per troy ounce this year, although the bull run may bottom out with a fall to $1,600 next year.
“Oil demand growth remains weak, and crude stocks are high, especially in the US. However, product inventories are low and should begin to build with a seasonal upturn in refining runs,” the World Bank said in a separate note. “The Brent/WTI spread remains at $15/barrel, despite oil now flowing through the reversed Seaway pipeline, as production continues to climb in Canada and the US,” it added.
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