Sunday, June 24, 2012

Brent crude, gold recover slightly, further fall looms

New Delhi: After hitting an 18-month low, crude oil prices bounced back on Friday to edge past $90 a barrel, but still stayed on course to record their biggest weekly loss in a year. Gold regained some lustre after the sharpest slide since February, although copper slipped into a a six-month low. Fears of a deepening macro-economic crisis after rating agency Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of 15 of the world's largest banks had weighed on commodities on Thursday. Dismal data—US factory production grew at its slowest pace in 11 months in June, business activity across Europe contracted for a fifth consecutive month and Chinese manufacturing shrank for an eighth month--intensified the possibility of sustained slowdown.
Brent crude dropped to $88.49 a barrel, the lowest since December 2010, before inching up again to $90.23 in the intraday trade. US crude, after tumbling by 4% on Thursday, gained $0.55 to $78.75. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe and weak Chinese demand have adversely affected commodity prices. The brent price has shed more than 8% so far this week, in its biggest weekly drop since the middle of 2012, and has crashed 30% from this year’s high of $128.40 achieved in March.
The relative strength index, a closely watched technical indicator, for brent has dropped to 18, suggesting prices are oversold and a rebound may be due, but in general, the technical picture contains only few bright spots, Reuters quoted an analyst as saying.
Gold firmed in Europe on Friday after posting its biggest single-day drop since February 29, as lower prices attracted some investors back to the market. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $1,569.39 an ounce in the intraday trade, while US futures for the August delivery gained $4.60 an ounce at $1,570.10. Gold had crashed on Thursday as the Federal Reserve refrained from announcing a new round of quantitative easing to prop up US growth. At the moment, analysts see some solid support at $1,560, and below that at $1,530.
Copper prices hit their lowest levels in six months on Friday on concerns that the macro-economic crisis in China, Europe and the U.S will drag down demand for raw materials. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange dropped 0.7% to $7,289 a tonne in the intraday trade. It hit a session low of $7,219.50, its lowest since December. Copper has crashed by more than 14% in the past three months and analysts see a further reduction.
A stronger dollar, which makes dollar-denominated assets more expensive for users of other currencies, also drove up copper and other base metals. Aluminium gained 0.3% at $1,875 a tonne, after touching a two-year low of $1,854.
It settled at $1,870 per tonne on Thursday.
Palm oil futures for September delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.6% to 2,953 ringgit ($928) per tonne. Prices rose to its highest level this month of 3,062 ringgit on Thursday. Despite Friday’s fall, palm oil still ended the week with a 3.7% gain, mainly due to earlier rallies on fears dry weather in the US may tighten global oilseed supplies.

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